Arndt Ellinghorst - KCK 404F

At the end of the day, he has to be right—at least 51 percent of the time. Arndt Ellinghorst is an automotive analyst. On the job, he looks to the future. In his private life, he loves the past. His work demands uncompromising objectivity as the basis for accurate forecasts. Yet he harbors a subjective fondness for a very special car: his Porsche 911 T/R.

It hisses on occasion when it feels like it, sometimes with startling vehemence. Arndt Ellinghorst is fond of his 911 T/R, including its idiosyncrasies. “When you get inside and drive, you leave everything else behind.”

The interior of the Light Ivory 911 is purist in the extreme, reduced to its very essence. It has nothing that would distract the driver, because driving is what it’s all about. When Ellinghorst, forty-six, sits down behind the wheel of his sports car, he’s not thinking about anything else and all is right with the world. That much is immediately clear.

Ellinghorst looks fresh: a touch of makeup highlights his tan, and his hair lies in perfectly symmetrical waves. After greeting us, he reveals that he has just made a guest appearance on a live news broadcast with CNBC. As an automotive analyst and industry insider, he is in demand when journalists want to know about mobility. This time, the subject was not the cars of the future, but rather the future of cars, of which Ellinghorst has a rather rosy view. “Stock prices in the industry are volatile, of course, but I think the trajectory is generally positive,” he says. He is firmly convinced that the global automotive industry will continue to grow. “Mobility remains of crucial importance to customers. True, the industry is undergoing change. Developments like automated vehicles, new drive systems, and digital applications are generating enormous pressure for change,” he remarks. But one shouldn’t underestimate the creativity of carmakers. “Apple, Google, and Uber are great companies, but I wouldn’t advise them to build cars.”

Ellinghorst works in the London office of the U.S. firm Evercore ISI. He is head of global automotive research, or, in other words, he knows the industry. Though he makes investment recommendations, he is an analyst, not a clairvoyant. “I’m often wrong, but thankfully more often I am right,” he says. “Otherwise, people wouldn’t ask me for advice.” He weighs the future without being too weighed down by the past.

Ellinghorst takes a down-to-earth approach to analysis.He looks closely at indicators such as price–earnings ratios, cash flow, and enterprise values. Then he calculates probabilities. “But that’s where I go beyond the content per se,” he notes. So does his gut instinct in fact play a role? “Seventy percent of what I do consists of hardcore observation and study: gathering data and analyzing developments. The rest is intuition.”

Another moment of silence follows. He sits in his favorite car, a recreation 1968 Porsche 911 T/R. There are only thirty-five originals. All of them are pure racing cars, built to enter and win rallies. Ellinghorst’s recreation is based on the T model’s lightweight chassis with a short wheelbase. Specialists from Mec Auto in Belgium took care of the engine. To generate even more power, they distributed the 2,700 cc of displacement across six cylinders. The car is fired by two fuel pumps from the 100-liter racing tank. The fire extinguisher, should there ever be a need for it, is lodged in the footwell on the passenger side—befitting this 250-hp race car.

The analyst drives his car through the financial district of London. Fuchs wheels in front, Minilite in back. A lot of orange on the outside, a lot of nothing on the inside. Perforated steel instead of foot mats, a racing wheel instead of a multifunction variant. Ellinghorst takes a deep breath, opens the window, and enjoys the vintage automotive sound. He lets the warm engine speed up to nearly 10,000 rpm before shifting gears. He looks out ahead, smiles, and says, “My brother and I used to rebuild VW Karmann Ghias, I wrote the thesis for my degree while at Audi, and then worked for Volkswagen. And now I’m sitting in a Porsche.” There is something fitting about that story.

He glances at his watch and then nods to confirm that we still have a few minutes. He talks about Ernst Seiler, also known as “The Hunter,” who used to drive the 911 T/R on the circuit in Monza, the Hockenheimring, the Nürburgring, and many other racing courses. The car was originally built for him, with extra rally headlights, a small racing wheel, a big engine, and a host of other customized features. But now it is time for Ellinghorst to head home, where his three sons are waiting. One of them has surely drawn a new picture. The boys draw pictures all day—of race cars.